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Start To Scale By Verne Harnish

How to do 36-Month Rolling Forecast?

29/4/2026

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Read the presentation along with your leadership team to understand how to do 36-month rolling forecast and use the below template for the same. Building a great business is a team sport. It's important for the leadership team to understand the big picture for the team to work together more cohesively and support each other to together win the world-cup in the Olympics of Business.
RYD_36 Months Rolling Forecast_v29apr26.xlsx
File Size: 17 kb
File Type: xlsx
Download File

What is this Tool?
It is a 36-month rolling Profit & Loss Statement for your leadership team, inspired by Shannon Susko's Metronomics framework. It gives three views of every month side by side — what happened (Actual), where you are heading (Rolling Forecast) and what you committed to (Approved Budget). It works for both service businesses and manufacturing businesses.

Actual
Enter once the month is closed. These are your real, recorded numbers from your accounting system. Fill left to right as each month closes. Actual numbers never change after entry.

Rolling Forecast
Update every single month — this is the most important column. Your best current view of every future month based on actuals to date, pipeline and known commitments. It 'rolls' forward — always showing 36 months ahead. If your rolling forecast is diverging from your Approved Budget, act now.

Approved Budget
Enter once at the start of each financial year. This is your committed plan — the number you said you would achieve. It does not change during the year. The gap between Rolling and Approved is your early warning system.

Revenue
Total income earned in the period. For service businesses: fees, retainers, programme revenue. For manufacturing: product sales revenue. Use accrual basis — record when earned, not when cash is received.

Total Expenses
COGS + Operating Expenses = All costs combined into one line.

COGS (Cost of Goods Sold): Direct costs to deliver your product or service — raw materials, direct labour, associate fees, delivery costs.

Operating Expenses: Overhead costs that exist regardless of revenue — salaries, rent, marketing, technology, professional fees.

Combining both keeps the tool simple and leadership-friendly.

Operating Profit
Revenue − Total Expenses
What remains after all costs. This is your core business profitability before interest and tax. For most SME leadership discussions, this is the most relevant and actionable profit metric.

Cash
Closing Bank Balance = Actual cash in bank at month end. NOT the same as profit.

Forecast Cash = Opening Cash + Cash Received − Cash Paid Out

Cash Received = Actual payments collected from customers this month.

Cash Paid Out = All actual payments made — salaries, suppliers, rent, tax, loan EMIs, owner drawings — everything that left the bank.

Shannon's rule: Forecast cash first. A profitable business can go bankrupt from cash starvation. Know your runway at all times.

Widgets
Core Volume Metric

Your primary output unit — the one number that, when it moves, tells you the business is working. Replace 'Widgets' with your specific metric:
• Service business: Active clients, coachees, subscribers, patients
• Manufacturing: Units produced, orders shipped, SKUs sold
• Retail: Transactions, footfall, basket size
• Education: Enrolled students, graduates

Widgets is your Leading Indicator. Revenue and Profit are lagging. If widgets are on track, the financials will follow.

How to Forecast Cash First?
Shannon's method: Shannon does not mean you type Cash before Revenue. She means a mindset shift in what you prioritise:
1. Cash first: What is my bank balance today? What cash will I receive? What cash must I pay? What is my runway?
2. Widgets next: How many units / clients will drive that cash?
3. Then Revenue: What does that volume translate to?
4. Then Expenses: What will it cost?
5. Then Profit: What remains?

Cash and Widgets are leading indicators. Revenue and Profit are results.

​Let's keep learning, implementing and massively contributing to joyously lead ourselves, our health, our kids, our relationships, our people and our businesses from good to great, realise our dreams and have it all with ease and grace; while having lots of fun and adventure together along the way.

Loving you,
j.
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